2026 market insights and what it means for us

 This report outlines why global shipping lanes and high-altitude weather patterns are currently dictating the cost of a flat white on the Coffs Coast.

The Global Supply Chain & Geopolitical Pressure

The primary driver of price increases is the disruption of maritime logistics. As of mid-2026, the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea routes remain volatile, forcing vessels to take longer, more expensive detours.

"The escalation of conflict in key maritime corridors has effectively added a 'risk premium' to every bag of green coffee landing in Australia. We are seeing freight insurance premiums and fuel surcharges that haven't been this high in decades." - International Coffee Organization (ICO), 2026 Market Outlook.

For a business like ours this means that even though our beans are sourced from regions like Ethiopia or Colombia, the cost of getting them to a port in Sydney or Brisbane has risen by an estimated 18-22% year-on-year.

Climate Impact on Arabica Yields

Specialty coffee relies on Arabica and Robusta species, which is notoriously sensitive to temperature fluctuations. In 2025 and 2026, Brazil—the world’s largest producer—has faced a series of "Black Frosts" and record-breaking droughts.

"We are witnessing a structural shift in coffee production. The 'safe' growing altitudes are disappearing. To maintain the quality standards required for 'Specialty' grade, farmers are being forced to relocate to higher elevations, which significantly limits the total available supply." - Dr. Arlo Sterling, Senior Analyst at the World Coffee Research (WCR).

When supply drops and quality becomes harder to find, the price for the "Top 5%" of the world's coffee (which we roast for you) increases significantly compared to lower-grade commercial coffee.

Local Impact: Why This Matters in Coffs Harbour

As a local family owned roastery, we're faced with two choices: reduce the quality of our beans to maintain lower prices or remain committed to the specialty movement while being transparent about the costs. In other words... locals will need to recognise and understand what they want in a good cup of coffee.

• The "Specialty" Buffer: Unlike supermarket coffee, which fluctuates wildly with the stock market, we pay a "Quality Premium" directly to the farmers that STOKA deals with. This helps stabilize their income even when the world market seems chaotic.

• Operational Costs: While the beans are more expensive, local factors like the rising cost of electricity, gas for our roasters and logistics along the Pacific Highway also play a role.

Future Outlook

Current data suggests that while the 2026/27 Brazil crop shows promise for a higher yield, the "Green Coffee" prices will remain elevated until shipping lanes stabilize. We are committed to absorbing as much of these "supply chain spikes" as possible to keep our community caffeinated without compromising our ethics.

"The consumer of 2026 isn't just buying a beverage; they are investing in a fragile global supply chain. Transparency is the only way to ensure that specialty coffee survives the next decade of climate change." - Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) 2026 Economic Report.

Conclusion

Every bag of coffee we roast in Coffs Harbour is a testament to the resilience of farmers halfway across the world. We thank you for your continued support as we navigate these global shifts together, ensuring that quality and fairness remain at the heart of our local coffee culture.